The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel have revived the possibility of the region moving from the brink of confrontation to an actual war, amid differing expert assessments of the impact of US President Donald Trump's and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's electoral calculations, and of the Israeli forces' ability to take military action without US participation or support.
Tom Harb, director of the American Middle East Coalition for Democracy, rejected in televised remarks the narrative that Trump had asked Netanyahu to carry out a solo attack. He said reports attributed to unnamed sources were leaks used by the opposition before the election to confuse or frighten the public.
Harb said the opposition was using the economy and war as election issues, predicting that the Republicans would retain the Senate and possibly the House of Representatives as well. He added that, in his assessment, the opposition had no practical programme to offer voters.
US and Israeli elections in the escalation calculations
He rejected linking any potential electoral defeat for Trump or Netanyahu to the Iran issue, defended the elected leaders and criticised passing judgment on Netanyahu before a court ruling against him. Amir Makhoul, an expert on Israeli affairs, meanwhile distinguished between keeping the region on the brink of war and deciding to launch an actual confrontation.
He said an Israeli-Iranian confrontation could not remain bilateral, citing two previous rounds that he described as clearly joint operations by Israel and the United States, with the US decision playing a central role.
Makhoul said continued tensions could help Netanyahu postpone the election or unite right-wing forces, but considered that war was no longer a means of rescue and could expose Israel's inability to confront Iran alone. He added that excluding Israel from decision-making and negotiations would make any potential war unequivocally American, a scenario Trump would not want for fear of renewed accusations that he was involved in Netanyahu's wars.
Amir Makhoul links war to US decision-making
For his part, Mosadegh Bor, director of the Iranian Centre for Strategic Studies, agreed with the view that election calculations and declining popularity for Trump and Netanyahu were contributing to the escalation. He referred to what he described as public boycotts of Trump during his campaigns, as well as the decline in both men's popularity in opinion polls.
Bor expected Netanyahu to ignite the Lebanese front and enter a confrontation with Hezbollah to raise tensions without becoming involved in a broad war. He said Trump was facing pressure related to fuel prices and the costs of war, estimating the cost of the confrontation at about 43 billion dollars, based on what he described as a Pentagon statement or study.
Bor said Israel could not take military action without US support, and that Trump's talk of a unilateral Israeli war was directed at the Israeli public to strengthen Netanyahu's electoral position. He accused both men of putting their personal interests first, saying Netanyahu wanted to remain in power for fear of prison, while Trump sought to raise his popularity.
Mosadegh Bor predicts limited strikes and escalation in Lebanon
Bor did not rule out a limited Israeli strike against Iran or the outbreak of a war with Hezbollah aimed at prolonging Netanyahu's time in power.
At the same time, he acknowledged that Iran needed to reassess its conduct, particularly on issues related to Arabs, after some of its actions had reflected negatively on it at the regional level.
