Israel is marking the third anniversary of the October 7 attacks three weeks before an election in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's responsibility for the security failure preceding the attacks is expected to become a central issue, as most opinion polls point to a close race that guarantees neither his bloc nor his opponents a clear majority in the Knesset.
The election carries particular political and judicial significance for Netanyahu, who faced one of the most dangerous periods for his political future in the weeks following the October 7 attacks. Despite his opponents' expectations that his government would collapse, he managed to keep it together and led Israel through simultaneous wars, while the country remained in a state of near-permanent emergency throughout the following three years.
According to an Axios report, the close polls leave Netanyahu with a path to remain in power once again, benefiting from the ability he has demonstrated throughout his political career to overcome crises and survive difficult turning points.
Opposition demands Netanyahu take responsibility for the failure
Nevertheless, the consequences of October 7 remain a powerful presence in the election campaign and in some Israelis' assessment of his performance. The opposition accuses Netanyahu of refusing to take responsibility for the failures that preceded Hamas's attack, which killed about 1,200 people, and of blocking the formation of an independent commission of inquiry to examine the circumstances of the attack and the decisions that preceded it.
Accountability has become a central issue, particularly after all senior officials in the national security establishment who held office at the time of the attack resigned, with the exception of Netanyahu. Former Israeli army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as Netanyahu's most prominent rival in the election. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews during the war in Gaza.
People close to him say his main political mission is to remove Netanyahu, whom he holds responsible for allowing the October 7 attacks to take place and failing to prevent them. Netanyahu, in turn, blames what he calls the 'deep state' for the failure. His political and media allies, along with his wife Sara Netanyahu, have promoted narratives and conspiracy theories suggesting that security leaders betrayed Israel.
The prime minister said senior security officials deliberately kept him away from information, suggesting that he could have prevented the massacre if they had woken him when early signs of an imminent attack emerged. Recent media reports, however, said Netanyahu did receive warnings, albeit partial ones, before the attacks.
Haaretz and other media outlets, including The New York Times, reported that he received warnings days before October 7 that Hamas was planning a major operation. The Israeli prime minister denied the account, while the reports sparked extensive debate inside Israel. The military and security developments that followed the attacks gave Netanyahu an opportunity to rebuild his image among some sections of Israeli society as a strong and decisive leader.
Over the three years, Israel experienced the war in Gaza, the release of hostages, military operations against Hezbollah, and two wars with Iran. These events allowed him to recast himself as capable of managing security and military crises.
Nevertheless, debate over his responsibility for the failures preceding the October 7 attacks continued, and the issue remained present alongside the toll of the subsequent wars and operations. Voters are therefore facing two competing narratives: the opposition's focus on political responsibility for the failure, and Netanyahu's account, which blames security leaders and institutions while highlighting his management of the confrontations that followed the attack.
Polls give neither bloc a majority
According to the same polls, the opposition does not appear capable of securing a majority without support from the Israeli Arab parties, which are expected to win a combined 12 to 14 seats. By contrast, Channel 14 polls, known for their proximity to Netanyahu, offer different estimates, predicting that the prime minister and his coalition will win a comfortable majority of 63 seats.
Amid the Israeli public's growing shift to the right, Netanyahu is pressuring his main rivals to pledge not to form a governing coalition with the Israeli Arab parties. This position could become an obstacle for Eisenkot in his attempt to reach power, even as he may seek to form a minority government if the results produce a balance that allows it.
One possible scenario, if the results match some polls, is that the election will produce a Knesset without a clear majority for either bloc. In that case, Netanyahu could remain as head of a caretaker government until a governing formula is reached or a new election is held, allowing him to stay in office even if his coalition fails to secure 61 seats.
Election result threatens Netanyahu's judicial future
The election's significance is not limited to Netanyahu's political future, as its results could also affect his legal position. Losing power could mean losing tools of influence that might help him delay or affect the course of his ongoing corruption trial. A victory, meanwhile, could lead him to claim that voters had politically exonerated him and perhaps encourage him to take stronger steps to obstruct the judicial proceedings against him.
The position of US President Donald Trump remains a potential factor in the contest. Publicly declaring his support for Netanyahu could give the prime minister a political boost, but Trump has so far refrained from offering such support openly. When Time magazine asked him several times recently whether he supported Netanyahu, he avoided answering directly.
Two people who spoke directly with Trump said that, in private conversations, the US president blamed Netanyahu for the failures preceding the October 7 attacks and expressed concern that the prime minister had damaged Israel's international reputation. Nevertheless, Trump remained close to Netanyahu during the war with Iran, and the possibility that he will declare his support for him remains.
US election adds another dimension to ties with Washington
The Israeli election will take place one week before the US midterm elections. If Democrats regain control of one or both chambers of Congress, a new political confrontation could emerge over arms sales to Israel and could extend to the future of annual US military aid to Israel, worth $3.8 billion.
The nature of some of that confrontation could be determined by the outcome of the Israeli election and whether Netanyahu remains in power or leaves office.
The election outcome is therefore linked to his political responsibility for October 7, his ability to build a majority, the future of his trial, and the course of relations with Washington if the balance of power in the US Congress changes.
