Iran is working to rebuild its stockpile of missiles and weapons, taking advantage of the halt in major US attacks, according to Western intelligence assessments indicating that Tehran retains the ability to manufacture new weapons and produce more within a short period, despite the extensive damage inflicted on its military and industrial infrastructure during previous strikes.
Washington–Tehran talks stall
The assessments come as talks between Washington and Tehran stall again, while US President Donald Trump suspends the resumption of attacks on Iran until the US midterm elections scheduled for November. Bloomberg quoted Western officials familiar with the intelligence assessments as saying that Iran still has the ability to replenish some of its losses and reconstitute its arsenal.
One official said Tehran retained a large stockpile of ballistic missiles, along with some anti-ship weapons, as well as the ability to increase production within a short period. Another Western official said Russia was also supplying Iran with missiles, in line with an earlier assessment issued in June.
Assessments differ from Trump’s statements
The Russian Defence Ministry did not respond to a request for comment, according to the report. The assessments contradict repeated statements by Trump and members of his administration about the destruction of Iran’s military and industrial capabilities.
The US president previously described the Iranian army as having been completely destroyed, while US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a speech delivered on 30 September that US forces had destroyed Iran’s military-industrial capabilities and its entire defence base.
Estimates of the size of Iran’s missile arsenal
Nevertheless, the assessments suggested that US and Israeli strikes had caused significant damage to Iran’s missile-production capabilities compared with the levels in place before the war. Uncertainty still surrounds the size of its remaining stockpile and the extent of Tehran’s ability to replace the weapons and facilities it has lost. According to Israeli estimates, Iran had about 2,500 ballistic missiles before the war began.
Western intelligence assessments issued in June also indicated that it had retained about three-quarters of the munitions it possessed before the war, although no confirmed figure was available for the current size of its stockpile. The White House rejected the assessments, with its spokesperson Anna Kelly saying: “First, Trump completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer,” referring to the US strikes carried out during the 12-day Israeli-Iranian war in June 2025.
Then Operation Epic Fury succeeded in destroying the conventional shield Iran had sought to build to protect its nuclear programme, including its ballistic missiles, production facilities and navy
Hormuz attacks put pressure on shipping and energy
She was referring to the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on 28 February this year. At the same time, attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz intensified, with at least 10 vessels attacked within a single week, according to the British navy.
Iran’s continued ability to produce missiles and anti-ship weapons could give Tehran room to continue holding out if Washington resumes its strikes, despite economic restrictions and the US naval blockade targeting its oil exports. Experts believe Iran may expand its reliance on “asymmetric warfare” tactics, making use of its missile stockpile and the possibility of hiding some weapons in mountainous areas, making them more difficult to target from the air.
The tensions have affected energy and shipping markets, with oil prices exceeding $100 a barrel while the cost of chartering an oil tanker rose to about $1.2 million a day, from less than $50,000 before the war.
These increases point to the pressures facing shipping movements and energy supplies in the region, while the halt in major US attacks has given Iran time to recover some of its capabilities and rebuild its arsenal amid continued prospects of escalation.
