A poll conducted last September among Lebanese citizens from the Shiite community found that 71.1% of participants believe decisions of war and peace should fall exclusively within the powers of the Lebanese state, while 29.6% preferred Hezbollah to retain its weapons under the current status quo.
Poll findings on decisions of war and peace
According to the published findings, 67.4% of respondents said Hezbollah had not achieved its objectives in the war with Israel, or had succeeded in achieving only some of them. In addition, 42.1% expressed negative feelings about the way the party’s leadership handled the war and its consequences. Regarding official security institutions, 78.5% of participants said they trusted the Lebanese army.
Alongside majority support for confining decisions of war and peace to the state, this figure reflects support for strengthening the role of Lebanese institutions in managing security and military affairs. The poll also asked about the possibility of reaching security arrangements relating to the border.
Mixed support for border security arrangements
The findings come as internal and external pressure on the Lebanese state intensifies to place weapons solely in the hands of its legitimate institutions and end the presence of weapons outside the army and security forces. Debate over the future of Hezbollah’s weapons has resurfaced following the military confrontation with Israel and the resulting loss of life and extensive damage in Lebanese areas, particularly the south, Beirut’s southern suburbs and the Bekaa.
The consequences of the war have also revived questions about the decision to enter military confrontations and the extent of the state’s authority over decisions related to national security, war and peace. Hezbollah, for its part, rejects giving up its weapons amid what it describes as continuing Israeli threats, and considers its military arsenal part of a deterrence and defence system for Lebanon.
The Lebanese authorities face the challenge of balancing demands to place weapons in the hands of the state with the political and sectarian sensitivities surrounding the issue, alongside international pressure to implement related security commitments.
The poll is significant because it focuses on the Shiite community, Hezbollah’s primary social base. However, its findings alone do not establish a comprehensive shift in the community’s positions, given that full methodological details have not been published and previous polls reached different conclusions.
