The battle for control of the US Senate is entering ten pivotal races ahead of the November midterm elections, with signs giving Democrats a chance to regain a majority that appeared out of reach at the start of the election cycle.
The Republican majority and what Democrats need to change the balance
Republicans currently hold a 53–47 majority, requiring Democrats to protect all their targeted seats while taking seats from their opponents. Democrats need to win at least two seats in states Donald Trump carried by more than 10 percentage points in 2024, while retaining the seats they are defending.
The competitive map shows the battleground expanding, with pressure moving to races that were not previously classed among the closest contests. Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire are among the leading seats Democrats are seeking to protect.
Meanwhile, the party is focusing on offensive opportunities in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas and Kansas, benefiting from some of its candidates’ leads in polling and fundraising advantages. In Georgia, Democrats’ priority is protecting Senator Jon Ossoff’s seat in a state Trump won by two percentage points in 2024.
Ossoff leads financially and in polling in Georgia
Ossoff is running against Republican Representative Mike Collins, with a substantial financial and polling advantage that has put him in a stronger position in the run-up to the election. Ossoff had raised $98 million by 30 June, and entered July with about $43 million in cash in his campaign account.
Collins, by contrast, had raised only $7.4 million, while his campaign had $2.1 million in available cash. Recent polls show Ossoff leading his Republican opponent by double digits. Ossoff is regarded as one of the potential candidates for the 2028 presidential election.
Although Republicans spent $17 million on the Georgia race, compared with $15 million by Democrats, the large direct resources available to Ossoff’s campaign could make it difficult for Collins to close the financial gap.
Michigan forces Democrats into a crucial defence
In Michigan, which Trump won by one percentage point in 2024, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is seeking to retain a vacant seat for the party. His success is a central part of the Democrats’ strategy, as losing the seat would mean the party had to take five Republican-held seats to reach a majority.
The Democratic establishment failed to get its preferred candidate through the primary after Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive outsider, narrowly defeated moderate Representative Haley Stevens. El-Sayed faces former Republican Representative Mike Rogers in what could be the closest race among the seats Democrats are defending.
Rogers sought to distance himself from Trump and his tariff policies, launching a 30-second advert in which he said Canada was not an enemy of the United States. “We need to end this trade war… now,” he added in the advert, focusing on the economic consequences of the trade tensions.
Former Vice-President Kamala Harris has campaigned in support of Abdul El-Sayed, while former President Barack Obama is expected to attend a rally for him later in October. The latest polls give the Democratic candidate a lead ranging from one to seven percentage points.
In terms of spending, Republicans have poured $86 million into the Michigan race, more than twice the Democrats’ $41 million. The amount of money directed to the state reflects the importance of the seat to both parties, given the narrow margin in the previous presidential election. In New Hampshire, Democrats are defending a vacant seat despite Harris winning the state by nearly three percentage points in 2024.
Pappas faces Sununu in open-seat New Hampshire
Democratic Representative Chris Pappas is running against former Republican Senator John Sununu, who lost his seat in 2008 to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the incumbent who has decided to retire. Pappas has raised $15 million, compared with Sununu’s $4 million, and the Democratic candidate has an advantage of about $1 million in available cash.
Republican spending has helped narrow the gap in Sununu’s favour. He belongs to a well-known political family in the state. The Republican candidate’s brother, Chris Sununu, served as New Hampshire governor until his term ended last year, while their father, John Sununu, was previously the state’s governor and chief of staff to President George H.W. Bush.
Republicans have spent $25 million on the race, compared with $12 million by Democrats, while Pappas has maintained a steady lead of between five and eight points. Maine represents Democrats’ main offensive opportunity: it is the only state where a sitting Republican senator is seeking re-election in a state Harris won by nearly seven percentage points in 2024.
Senator Susan Collins is facing a challenge after years of seeking to distance herself from Trump. Collins has declined to appear with Trump or his Vice-President JD Vance in the state. During a debate last week, she acknowledged that she was not the president’s preferred senator and said Trump would not visit Maine.
Collins had voted to convict Trump in his impeachment proceedings over the 6 January events. Nevertheless, Collins helped Republicans pass the ‘big beautiful bill’, despite voting against it at its final stage. Democrats are also betting that voters will hold her accountable for supporting Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court, a decision that paved the way for the repeal of the federal right to abortion.
But Democrats faced a crisis of their own after nominating Graham Platner in Maine, a progressive who works in oyster farming. Platner faced pressure to withdraw over sexual assault allegations, which he denies, prompting the state party to adopt an expedited process to choose a replacement candidate.
Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, also a progressive, replaced Platner. Jackson, however, began his Senate campaign during the summer with little financial backing. Platner had raised more than Collins, but the Republican senator maintained a substantial cash advantage, with $11 million available.
Republicans poured more than $50 million into Maine to support Collins’s re-election. She chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee. Democrats spent $26 million. Despite the financial gap, the latest polls give Jackson a four-point lead.
In North Carolina, signs emerged that Republicans were less confident in their ability to retain the seat after one of their leading supportive political action committees shifted resources to Kansas. Republican Senator Thom Tillis, known for his criticism of Trump, had decided not to seek another term.
Democrats put forward former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper for the vacant seat, while Republicans chose Michael Whatley, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee. Cooper raised $35 million and held about $21 million in cash, compared with Whatley’s $11 million raised and $3.5 million in available cash. Republicans spent $45 million on the race, nearly $20 million more than Democrats.
Even so, Cooper maintained his lead in polls throughout September and into October, with the gap exceeding 10 percentage points in some surveys. Trump won the state by three points in 2024. Ohio is one of four battleground states Trump won by double digits in 2024, and Democrats need to carry at least two states in this group to regain a majority.
The party’s candidate is former Senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat to Republican Bernie Moreno in the previous election cycle. Brown faces Republican Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to the Senate to replace JD Vance after Vance moved to the White House.
The winner of this special election will complete the remainder of Vance’s term, which ends in January 2029. Brown has raised $39 million and has $16 million in cash, compared with Husted’s $14 million raised and $9 million in cash.
In Alaska, Trump plans to hold a campaign rally on Tuesday after winning the state by 13 percentage points in 2024. Republicans nevertheless face the prospect of losing its Senate seat, with incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan running against former Representative Mary Peltola.
Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system that allows voters to rank candidates by preference instead of selecting a single name. Voters will have four choices, including Sullivan, Peltola and another candidate also named Dan Sullivan, whom Republicans have described as a “spoiler candidate” allegedly intended to confuse voters.
Peltola raised $7 million more than Sullivan, but the Republican senator has a $2.7 million advantage in available cash. Republicans spent $28 million on the race, compared with $21 million by Democrats, while the latest polls show Peltola leading Sullivan or tied with him.
Pressure on Republicans has also spread to Iowa, amid declining support for Trump and the impact of tariffs and the war with Iran, despite his winning the state by 13 percentage points in 2024. Republican Senator Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek another term opened the contest for a vacant seat.
Republican Representative Ashley Hinson is competing against Democratic state Representative Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medallist. Hinson called last month for an “immediate end” to the war with Iran, saying Iowans “should not have to bear the cost of war through higher fuel or goods prices”.
Hinson repeatedly opposed House resolutions introduced by Democrats calling for an end to the war. She leads Turek by $4 million in contributions and available cash, while Republicans have spent $51 million on the race, compared with $42 million by Democrats. The latest Iowa polls show Hinson narrowly ahead at some points and Turek at others, reflecting the closeness of the contest.
That makes the seat part of a broader map of races in states voters gave to Trump by clear margins two years ago. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico, a member of the state House of Representatives, is seeking to end the Democrats’ failure to win statewide office since 1994.
The party previously placed similar hopes in Beto O’Rourke and Colin Allred, but both lost to Republican Senator Ted Cruz in 2018 and 2024. Talarico faces Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, historically considered one of the party’s weaker candidates in the state, although Texas’s traditional Republican lean remains an influential factor. Trump won the state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024.
Republicans have already spent $210 million to retain the seat after voters chose Paxton over incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn in the runoff. Trump had endorsed Paxton despite Washington Republicans favouring Cornyn, who was widely viewed as the favourite in the general election. Leaked audio recordings revealed disagreements between Trump and Paxton.
The Republican candidate told donors in private conversations that the president’s convention to support the midterm elections had harmed his campaign, adding that he did not control it because it was being run from Washington. Democrats have spent only $39 million on the Texas race, but Talarico has raised about $60 million more than Paxton.
He also said he had about $20 million more in cash than his opponent, while the latest polls ranged from a tie to a six-point lead for Talarico. Kansas has likewise entered the competitive field after the political environment shifted in Democrats’ favour. Republicans moved resources from North Carolina to support Senator Roger Marshall, who has criticised Immigration and Customs Enforcement activities in his state in recent weeks.
Trump won Kansas by 16 percentage points in 2024, but the state has elected Democrat Laura Kelly governor twice. Republican leaders have publicly acknowledged that its Senate race is more competitive and closer than they would like. Marshall is running against Adam Hamilton, the founder and pastor of a large Methodist church.
Marshall’s campaign raised $2 million more than Hamilton’s, while the Republican senator has an advantage of about $3.7 million in available cash. Democrats, meanwhile, spent $7.6 million on the Kansas race, compared with $4.6 million by Republicans.
The latest polls show Hamilton leading by between one and five percentage points, placing a state Trump won by a wide margin among the races that could determine which party controls the Senate.
