Lithuania’s parliament has voted for the first time on an amendment lifting the constitutional ban on deploying nuclear weapons in the country. The move forms part of an expansion of Western deterrence against Russia and increases security sensitivities near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea region. The amendment requires a second parliamentary vote.
Germany and the US strengthen their military presence
The Lithuanian move comes as Germany proceeds with deploying a permanent brigade in Lithuania, set to include 5,000 military and civilian personnel. The Lithuanian government is also seeking to turn the US military presence on its territory from a rotational to a permanent one, and has offered to cover the cost of building a US base in the country. US President Donald Trump said he would consider the request.
Moscow described the steps as a new escalation in the confrontation between Russia and NATO. The Kremlin warned that the proximity of US military infrastructure, along with the possibility of nuclear weapons being deployed near Russia’s borders, would increase tensions and undermine stability in Europe.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said his country was closely monitoring NATO’s moves and working to prevent what it regards as threats to its security from its western neighbours. The sensitivity of the developments is linked to Lithuania’s location next to Kaliningrad, a Russian region not connected by land to the rest of Russia and one of the country’s main military deployment areas in the Baltic Sea.
Kaliningrad’s sensitivity in Russian calculations
Writer and political analyst Andrei Ontikov said the moves posed a major risk because they were taking place in Lithuania, which borders Kaliningrad. He added that NATO had previously held exercises and massed forces near the region, alongside separate statements calling for the need to take control of it.
Ontikov said Lithuania understood that it would be the first to suffer if a potential attack on Kaliningrad took place, because Russia, in his assessment, would not let such a move pass without a response. He said growing pressure on the region deepened what he described as Russia’s existential concern about the alliance. He noted that, even before the war in Ukraine began, NATO had discussed creating a corridor along the border between Lithuania and Poland, in the area between Kaliningrad and Belarus.
He also accused the alliance of viewing the region as a vulnerability that could be taken control of in order to close the Baltic Sea to Russia, saying this was an old objective rather than a new one. Ontikov said Kaliningrad would see a military build-up, including nuclear weapons, to prevent it from being attacked or blockaded and to respond forcefully to any attempt to cut Moscow off from the Baltic.
Responding to Western accusations, he said Russia was acting with extreme restraint and was not carrying out cyberattacks or drone attacks against NATO countries. Ontikov accused Kyiv of trying to drag Europe into war by targeting some of its countries with drones and blaming Moscow. This contrasts with Western accusations that Russia is conducting hybrid and provocative activities inside European countries.
Russian-Western dispute over the causes of escalation
Former US diplomat Donald Jensen said the military measures were not limited to Lithuania but extended along NATO’s eastern flank. He attributed them to what he called Russian hybrid attacks, which had prompted neighbouring countries to adopt preventive security arrangements. He cited Sweden and Ukraine and expected Moldova to take similar steps in the future.
Jensen added that Russian statements about using nuclear weapons were alarming these countries and that activities he described as provocative were accelerating in a number of European states. He said Moscow was seeking other ways to compensate for its inability to make progress in Ukraine.
Deterrence risks and the Baltic Sea confrontation
Ralf Thiele, director of the Institute for Political and Military Affairs in Berlin, said Europe had repeatedly tried over the past six or seven decades to restrict Russia’s access to the Baltic Sea. He said it had succeeded in doing so through Lithuania and Sweden joining NATO.
Thiele said European moves were a response to Russian threats against neighbouring countries, urging those states to act quickly in dealing with what he described as a dangerous situation. However, he ruled out NATO targeting Kaliningrad, warning Moscow of the potential consequences of any escalation and stressing that the situation developing into a confrontation would be extremely dangerous and serve no one’s interests.
Jensen, for his part, acknowledged Kaliningrad’s great importance to Russia and the possibility that Moscow could resort to nuclear weapons to protect it. But he said Russia often used threats in an attempt to subdue its neighbours without carrying out what it threatened, expressing his belief that this policy would not achieve its aims.
Jensen attributed what he described as Russian attacks on Europe to an attempt to test the US position on any potential attack against NATO’s eastern flank, as well as to gauge the reaction of European countries. He said these developments had prompted the US and Europe to discuss a new structure for the alliance, amid continuing disagreement over the limits of deterrence and the risks of tensions spilling over into direct confrontation.
