Scientific estimates suggest that the upper stage of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket may have struck the Moon’s surface near Einstein Crater at around 6:35 a.m. GMT on Wednesday, although there has been no official confirmation of the impact so far.
No danger to Earth
NASA spokesperson Jimmy Russell said in a statement that there was “no danger to Earth,” adding that the agency would continue tracking the rocket’s upper stage for training purposes before monitoring the impact site for scientific purposes.
NASA plans to photograph the expected impact site using its Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, alongside South Korea’s Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter, with the images expected to take several days to become available.
Possible impact at 8,690 kilometres per hour
Assuming the fuel was completely depleted, researchers estimated that the rocket stage, weighing about four tonnes, fell at a speed of approximately 8,690 kilometres per hour near Einstein Crater in the Moon’s northern hemisphere, which is expected to leave a crater on its surface.
Scientists and amateur astronomers had hoped to observe a cloud of dust, rocks and debris illuminated by the Sun following the possible impact, amid questions about how bright the phenomenon would be and whether it could be observed.
We do not yet know how bright this phenomenon will be, and that is one of the reasons we want to study this event.
From space mission to debris
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, built by Elon Musk’s company, was launched into space in January 2025 carrying two spacecraft. The rocket’s booster stage returned to Earth, while the upper stage remained in space to continue transporting the two spacecraft before becoming space debris.
