Assessments are mounting that Israel may initiate a solo strike on Iran before the Israeli election scheduled for 27 October this month, in a potential shift in its security strategy involving military action without direct US participation, although it would remain linked to coordination with Washington.
Three factors shaping the timing of the possible strike
The option is being considered amid an Israeli belief that Tehran is rebuilding its military, missile and nuclear capabilities. According to these assessments, Israel believes it must “act before it is too late”, with three political and security factors potentially influencing calculations over the timing of any possible operation.
Israeli affairs expert Muhannad Mustafa says the first factor is linked to the personal and political needs of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court, in the period before the vote. Netanyahu believes, according to Mustafa, that initiating independent strikes on Iran could improve his chances of winning or strengthen his electoral standing on the eve of the vote.
Mustafa links these calculations to assessments within Netanyahu’s camp that carrying out a major military operation could give him a decisive electoral boost. Thus, the timing of the election overlaps with security considerations in examining the option of military action before the vote.
Rebuilding Iranian capabilities accelerates calculations
The second factor is the belief within the Israeli military and political establishment that Iran is working to restore its missile and nuclear capabilities. Israeli assessments indicate that Tehran is repairing its nuclear facilities, prompting Tel Aviv to regard preventing the rebuilding of those capabilities as a reason for action, according to Mustafa.
The third factor is linked to the pressures facing Iran at the political, regional and economic levels. Mustafa says Israel believes that the intensity of these pressures could prompt Tehran to initiate strikes against it in an attempt to escape its predicament, reinforcing consideration of pre-emptive offensive options alongside defensive preparations.
Israeli-US coordination and independent military options
In this context, operational sources in the Israeli military said that the Israeli and US militaries continue to maintain very close intelligence and operational coordination regarding Iran. The sources added that the Israeli military is preparing to take independent action if necessary, and is developing pre-emptive offensive options and defensive postures in anticipation of Tehran initiating hostile acts aimed at breaking its economic isolation.
These assessments come after the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on 28 February. Tehran responded with attacks on Israel and on what it said were US sites in countries across the region. The attacks included civilian targets and others linked to energy, before a ceasefire was reached in April.
At a later stage, the United States launched attacks on sites inside Iran, despite the two countries signing a memorandum of understanding in mid-June.
Negotiations between the two sides also stalled because of disputes related to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most prominent strategic routes for energy and commodity supplies.
