Concern is growing within NATO that European defence spending could slow, as far-right parties gain popularity in several countries across the continent and call for reducing military aid to Ukraine or rejecting increases in defence budgets. Alliance diplomats believe the effects of this shift could become clear when next year’s budgets are approved.
Diplomats warn of a slowdown in European spending
Four NATO diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the risk of a slowdown in the pace of defence spending in Europe had become an increasing concern. This comes as several countries have begun discussing their upcoming budgets, amid competition between defence requirements, spending on social welfare and other domestic priorities.
Far-right parties in France, Italy, Belgium, Germany, Poland and Romania are seeking to exploit voters’ concerns about rising living costs to oppose aid to Kyiv. Some of these parties also reject increases in national defence budgets or an expanded EU role in defence affairs, although their positions differ and are divided across these issues.
In France, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen called last month for limiting aid to Ukraine, saying: "Financially, we can no longer do it." Le Pen leads the list of potential candidates for the presidency, increasing the political significance of her party’s position on military spending and support for Kyiv.
In Italy, former general and European Parliament member Roberto Vannacci, who leads the far-right National Future party, called for a reassessment of defence spending. He said last week: "Let us assess whether this military spending is justified: in my view, it is not, especially at a time when the prices of basic goods are at record levels."
Jani Kuisela, permanent secretary at Finland’s Ministry of Defence, said rising living costs were creating space for populist rhetoric about the level of financial support that should be provided to Ukraine, as well as the amount of investment that should be directed towards defence.
The debate is becoming more sensitive as the 2027 elections approach in major NATO member states including France, Italy and Poland, where far-right parties have chances of coming to power. Slower spending would complicate NATO’s efforts to meet its goal of spending 5% of gross domestic product on defence and security by 2035.
Spending target and defence capability indicators
A military official in the alliance said NATO was "in a position where we need to catch up" with Russia, adding: "So far, we are on a positive path, but if someone turns off the tap, there is a risk of losing capabilities." European countries and Canada are expected to spend 634 billion dollars on core defence requirements this year, an increase of 11% compared with 2025.
The European Council on Foreign Relations assessed the poll’s findings, which revealed differences in public attitudes across the continent. The highest levels of opposition to tax increases to fund military spending were recorded in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland.
By contrast, respondents in the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom showed greater willingness to accept tax increases if the additional revenue was allocated to defence spending. Rome, Brussels and Madrid saw protests this year against increases in defence budgets. Participants criticised cuts to funding for hospitals, universities and social services, reflecting direct competition between military priorities and public spending affecting voters’ daily lives.
Declining public support has also extended to backing for Ukraine, with NATO internal polls conducted in the spring showing support falling from 59% in 2025 to 55% this year. Lethal aid was the least popular form of support among the options covered by the polls.
Three right-wing positions on defence policy
The positions of far-right parties opposed to defence policies in Europe fall into three main categories: rejecting military aid to Ukraine, opposing joint defence projects at EU level and criticising increases in defence spending in general. France’s National Rally and Romania’s Alliance for the Union of Romanians oppose providing aid to Kyiv.
Poland’s Law and Justice party and the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom oppose defence projects managed at EU level, while Germany’s Alternative for Germany and Italy’s National Future party criticise increases in defence spending in general. Political opponents of the right have warned that these positions serve the Kremlin’s interests.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said: "The pressure from the right does not actually come from the right, but to a large extent from Moscow." Parties including National Rally and Alternative for Germany have long-standing ties with Russia, despite efforts in recent years to distance themselves from those links. The expected political consequences vary from one European country to another.
While Le Pen is ahead in the potential French presidential race, Alternative for Germany has made gains at regional level but is unlikely to take power nationally soon. Nevertheless, far-right gains are putting centrist parties under pressure to choose between defending higher spending and considering cuts to preserve public support.
Pawel Zerka, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said there was a risk that the pro-European mainstream across the continent would become "too hesitant to spend… as much as is needed on defence", amid growing public and political opposition to the cost of defence policies.
Government pressure to review military spending
In France, Le Pen’s National Rally has indicated that it would respect the current path of increasing military spending, despite calling for reduced support for Ukraine. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proposed last week cutting defence spending by eight billion euros from the initial government proposal, amid pressure from the League, her partner in the far-right coalition.
You cannot spend on weapons what you cannot spend on pensions, fuel-tax relief or utility bills
In Poland, President Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party, tried to block access to defence loans worth about 44 billion euros from the EU’s "SAFE" programme, but was unsuccessful. Nawrocki justified his position by saying the programme could make Poland dependent on Brussels and burden future generations with debt.
Pressure to review defence spending could make it more difficult for NATO members to fund the capabilities that alliance officials consider necessary to deter Russia. Capitals are beginning talks this month to define the alliance’s war plans, which are to be completed by 2029.
A NATO diplomat said a slowdown in major countries such as France and Italy would have wider consequences, given their larger share of defence investment and aid directed to Kyiv. He added: "If the big countries stop making progress, NATO will stop making progress, NATO will weaken, Europe’s ability to defend itself will weaken, and Ukraine will… be more vulnerable."
The impact of a slowdown could extend to the size of the amount allocated to defence in the EU’s next long-term budget if negotiations continue into next year, according to defence economist and senior fellow at the Bruegel research centre Guntram Wolff.
German MEP Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the European Parliament’s Defence Committee, said: "Nationalists all care only about their own countries, and they do not want to work together with other European countries." This dispute places the future of European defence cooperation and support for Ukraine at the centre of discussions on upcoming budgets and elections.
