Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez decided on Monday to dissolve parliament and call an early parliamentary election at the end of next month, in an attempt to overcome the deadlock facing his government in parliament. The decision came amid popular protests linked to the housing crisis, with some assessments viewing it as a political gamble that could pave the way for the right to take power.
Parliamentary polarisation ahead of the snap election
Spain is entering the election amid debate over the record of Sánchez, who has led the government since 2018, and amid sharp polarisation between the right and left and parliamentary divisions that have affected the governing coalition’s ability to implement its policies.
The government, which lacks the necessary majority, was unable to pass two legislative decrees related to the housing crisis after a series of political difficulties constrained its actions. Sánchez had previously managed to overcome similar political crises by building alliances with forces of differing orientations.
Returning to the ballot box has nevertheless become a means for him to seek a new popular mandate that would give him a majority to implement his government’s political and economic choices and end its continued reliance on shifting parliamentary understandings. Opinion polls suggest that an early election could give the conservative People’s Party an opportunity to increase its number of seats, potentially enabling it to form a coalition government with the right-wing Vox party.
Expectations of a right-wing coalition after the vote
If Vox joins the government, it would be the first time the party has entered government since the era of General Francisco Franco. Writer and political analyst Ramón González Férriz said Sánchez had chosen to end the political hardship he had endured over the past three years as a result of losing his parliamentary majority.
He said the right had held the upper hand in parliament, prompting the prime minister to seek a way out that concerned not only his political future but also the fate of the governing coalition. Férriz added that Sánchez’s government had failed over eight years to find a solution to the migrant issue, while also opening the door for foreigners to invest extensively in the property sector, which he said came at the expense of Spaniards.
He linked these policies to mounting pressure in the housing market, which has become one of the key issues shaping the electoral landscape. He explained that Spain had previously experienced what was known as the property bubble, when many homes were built without anyone to live in them, leading to a sharp fall in rents.
He said migration later added one million new families, contributing to rising rents, while Spaniards had become afraid to build or own homes because of high taxes, at a time when the government had failed to satisfy either landlords or tenants. Regarding the make-up of the next government, Férriz ruled out the People’s Party entering a direct coalition with Vox, saying the far-right party would not agree to join any government without concessions.
He explained, however, that this would not prevent the two parties from supporting each other against the left because they agree on issues including migration and relations with pro-independence governments, such as the government of Catalonia. Nevertheless, he ruled out the eventual formation of a purely right-wing government.
Analysts divided over Sánchez’s motives
Political researcher Ricardo Gayied, by contrast, said the housing crisis was not the real reason for calling an early election. He said the migrant crisis and developments in the city of Ceuta a few months ago had prompted Sánchez to seek a genuine majority, arguing that the prime minister had put housing at the forefront because it served his party’s interests.
According to Gayied, Sánchez expects to win a large majority in the next election, but he ruled out his achieving that goal amid the possibility of the right securing a sweeping victory over the left. This assessment reflects the scale of the risk involved in dissolving parliament, as the election could produce an outcome different from the one sought by the prime minister and his coalition.
Election to test Spain’s foreign policy
The debate over the election’s outcome extends to the future of Spanish foreign policy. Sánchez’s government has stood out for its opposition to Israeli policies, particularly after the war waged by Benjamin Netanyahu’s government on the Gaza Strip, positions that have contributed to strained relations between Madrid and Washington.
Férriz ruled out a radical shift in foreign policy if a right-wing government is formed, although the People’s Party adopts positions supportive of Israel, while Vox goes further in its support for it. He attributed this to the Spanish public mood’s leaning towards Palestine, expecting any potential change to be limited to steps aimed at appeasing President Donald Trump, and stressing that Israel had “lost its standing among the Spanish people”.
If the government changes, Spain’s foreign policy will change, particularly on the issue of Palestine, because the party
Dr Hasni Abidi, a professor of international relations at the University of Geneva, considered Sánchez’s move pre-emptive, as only six months remained before the scheduled election. He linked the decision to domestic rather than foreign contexts, pointing to criticism the prime minister had faced over migration and the issue of Ceuta.
Abidi described the call for an early election as a political gamble aimed at securing an overwhelming majority. He said that if the right succeeded in forming a coalition government, “we would be witnessing a strong return of the right in Europe generally, and this means a change in foreign policies”.
Abidi noted that International Monetary Fund reports indicated that Sánchez’s government had recorded growth of 2.1%, unlike other European governments, a factor that he believes could lead to the right failing to win the election.
Nevertheless, Abidi does not expect a radical change in Spanish foreign policy even if the vote results in the formation of a right-wing government.
