Two Iranian officials said Tehran had begun about 10 days ago to use different methods against ships it considers in breach of the restrictions it imposes, leading to an increase in attacks on those vessels as part of a strategy involving changes to the type and frequency of operations and an expansion of their geographical scope beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
The officials said the strategy had been approved at the highest levels of Iran’s leadership and fully co-ordinated among the ruling establishment. They added that one of its objectives was to influence US elections, while one of them said its aim was to thwart efforts by the United States and its allies to lower global oil prices.
Revolutionary Guards change methods for targeting ships
A US military official confirmed that Iran had changed its methods substantially, saying the Revolutionary Guards had used unarmed observers operating from small boats to identify potential targets, including US Navy vessels. The official said this followed US strikes that destroyed most of Iran’s radar capabilities.
The US official disclosed an incident last week in which the US military spotted Iranian observers aboard a sailing boat supplying the Revolutionary Guards with information about targets. He added that US forces ordered those aboard to leave before destroying the boat, with no loss of life.
He said Iran did not want to risk the fast boats it had left and had been unable to halt the increase in oil exports passing through the strait, particularly after US strikes destroyed its naval forces. The war, estimated to cost about $3 billion a month, has become a central issue in US midterm election campaigns.
As President Donald Trump considers his next steps towards Iran, he has announced that he will not launch another attack before the election. Washington, meanwhile, continues to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports while expanding sanctions, in an attempt to reach an agreement that would end the conflict.
Commercial attacks escalate around the Strait of Hormuz
Independent data showed that the number of attacks on commercial ships still crossing the Strait of Hormuz had risen in recent days to its highest level since the war began. An analysis of data from maritime security sources and incidents reported by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency found that the area around the strait had recorded at least five incidents within 48 hours.
The incidents involved tankers and other commercial vessels and included drone attacks. According to the UN’s International Maritime Organisation, the number was roughly comparable to the pace of attacks recorded between 3 and 5 October, indicating a fresh escalation in the area. A maritime security source confirmed an increase in the frequency of attacks, saying they appeared deliberate.
In the same context, the Iranian officials said Tehran intended to expand the geographical scope of its operations beyond the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman and waters farther afield. Analyses of reported attack data indicate that Iran is already targeting ships in areas outside the strait, including vessels off the coasts of countries in the region in recent days.
Tehran expands operations beyond the strait
The second Iranian official said Tehran would act whenever it believed its adversaries were nearing the point at which prices would fall, describing the confrontation as a “game of chess”. He added that ships targeted by Iran would not be safe anywhere, even outside the Strait of Hormuz.
The officials said Tehran was moving towards a situation in which no ship it considered in breach of its restrictions would be able to pass through the strait. One of them said: “A complete closure will happen soon.” In its latest reports, the Joint Maritime Information Centre, led by the US Navy, kept the threat level facing commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz at “severe”, the second-highest threat level.
The centre said attacks and attempted attacks and harassment operations by the Revolutionary Guards were continuing. The report said harassment activities included drone flights, monitoring commercial vessels and occasional radio communications, amid an increase in reported security incidents around the strait and a shift in operations towards areas farther from it.
