More than 1.76 million people in the Gaza Strip face winter 2026 in overcrowded displacement camps or damaged, inadequate shelters, amid warnings that cold weather, rain and possible flooding could expand the spread of infectious, respiratory and waterborne diseases. These risks come as infrastructure has broadly collapsed, water is contaminated, sanitation has deteriorated and medical services are in short supply after nearly 3 years of war, destruction and repeated displacement.
International organisations warn that low temperatures and rain, combined with fragile tents, overcrowding and malnutrition, threaten to turn the coming months into a new test of the population’s resilience. Children face the greatest risk, particularly those weakened by repeated displacement, food shortages and previous illnesses.
The displacement of 1.76 million people increases winter risks
A report issued by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) last September said about 84% of the Strip’s population, or more than 1.76 million people, still lived in overcrowded camps or damaged shelters that offered insufficient protection from severe cold, heavy rain and flooding.
These conditions increase children’s exposure to hypothermia, respiratory infections and waterborne diseases, raising the likelihood of their spread among displaced people. During last winter, official UNICEF reports recorded the deaths of at least 11 children, including infants, from hypothermia.
The organisation linked the deaths to a lack of urgent preparedness and early action, warning that children weakened by displacement, malnutrition and recurrent illness would face another winter in 2026 in what it described as extremely dangerous conditions. Winter risks are worsening as the health system’s ability to treat patients declines.
Hospital disruption limits the response to disease
According to a World Health Organization report on public health conditions in Gaza, attacks on hospitals during the war caused them to stop operating wholly or partially. Only 18 of the 36 hospitals that existed before the war are now functioning partially. This has overcrowded the hospitals that remain operational, while the health sector, with its current capacity, is unable to meet growing needs.
The deterioration of medical services has increased patients’ suffering and worsened their health, while mortality linked to poor available healthcare has risen. Médecins Sans Frontières says diseases directly associated with deteriorating living conditions are spreading, including skin diseases and scabies.
The organisation attributes this to a shortage of clean water for bathing and personal hygiene, as well as scarce disinfectants in places of displacement and shelter. Cases of watery diarrhoea and respiratory infections account for about 17.5% of all medical consultations at clinics.
Infections with these diseases increase as temperatures fall and winter begins, while rainwater flooding the camps, in the absence of adequate drainage, expands the spread of infection and worsens symptoms among those affected.
Rain and waste increase exposure to climate risks
The World Health Organization warned in a report on exposure to climate events in the Gaza Strip during last winter that residents were entering the cold season amid unprecedented humanitarian and health conditions, making them more vulnerable to the effects of severe weather. It estimated that about 1.9 million people, more than 70% of the Strip’s population, lived in areas highly exposed to climate hazards, while basic infrastructure was suffering widespread collapse.
The organisation expects rainfall during the winter season to range between 450 and 500 millimetres, alongside strong winds, storms and rising sea waves. These conditions could intensify the humanitarian crisis, particularly as hundreds of thousands of displaced people live in temporary tents that offer inadequate protection from rain and wind.
Climate hazards overlap with environmental and health challenges, including sewage accumulating across large areas of the Strip and the build-up of about half a million tonnes of waste. This includes hazardous medical waste that cannot be collected or disposed of safely, increasing the risk of water contamination and disease as the rains begin.
According to the World Health Organization, Gaza’s level of exposure to climate hazards has risen sharply since the war began, from about 60% before October 2023 to more than 90% at the beginning of 2026. This means most residents now face the risks of flooding, environmental pollution and infectious diseases simultaneously, alongside potential damage from strong winds and coastal storms.
The organisation says the coincidence of mass displacement and these climate conditions has created a complex humanitarian crisis in which health and environmental hazards overlap on an unprecedented scale. It warned that widespread health crises could occur during winter unless urgent measures are taken to limit the effects of rain, cold, flooding and pollution.
Urgent measures to reduce the impact of flooding and cold
Essential needs to mitigate the effects of severe weather include establishing early-warning systems, selecting safer locations for shelters, improving rainwater drainage networks and ensuring the continued delivery of humanitarian aid in line with expected weather conditions.
The funding aims to protect them from temperatures falling to freezing point, heavy rain and flooding, and other winter conditions that could threaten their lives. Jonathan Fitch, UNICEF’s special representative in the State of Palestine, said that for hundreds of thousands of children, winter was not merely a seasonal hardship but «another threat to children’s survival and safety».
The organisation’s winter response plan covers the period from October 2026 to March 2027. It prioritises children and families affected by displacement and inadequate shelter, as well as those facing the risks of flooding, severe cold and disruption to essential services.
Urgent assistance needed before winter includes clothing and thermal blankets, strengthening emergency shelters and providing tents for the families most in need. The required measures also include clearing roads and sewage networks, removing solid waste and weatherproofing toilets.
These measures aim to reduce contamination of floodwater and limit disease risks, alongside health and safety awareness activities for residents and displaced people. Islam Anan, a specialist in health economics and epidemiology, said Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip had damaged health infrastructure and reduced access to essential care and medical supplies.
He stressed the need for a sustainable mechanism to deliver medical aid continuously to address the acute shortage of supplies and services. Anan said this aid was essential to prevent disease outbreaks, treat injuries, manage chronic conditions and save lives.
He added that shortages included key supplies such as blood bags needed for emergency surgery and treating the wounded, and essential medicines used in emergencies. He said vaccines were needed to prevent outbreaks of diseases such as polio and chickenpox, along with rehydration solutions and medicines for dysentery and diarrhoea in children.
He linked cases of diarrhoea and dehydration to shortages of food and clean water, which increase medical needs as health facilities’ capacity declines. Anan warned of the need to provide water-purification tools and filters, such as rapid filters and biological purification methods used by health organisations in disaster-hit areas of Africa.
He said providing clean water for drinking and personal hygiene would reduce diseases linked to poor hygiene and inadequate disinfection. He also called for protected access for urgent aid to prevent the spread of infectious diseases caused by overcrowding, poor sanitation and weak health surveillance.
He warned particularly of the risks of outbreaks of cholera, measles and polio, stressing that implementing a strategic vaccination campaign and strengthening disease surveillance should be an essential part of the relief plan.
