Former Costa Rican Vice-President Rebecca Grynspan strengthened her position in the race to select the next United Nations secretary-general after leading the latest Security Council straw poll for the fourth time, in a process whose final outcome remains linked to the positions of the five permanent members and their veto power.
The Security Council held a new round of the “straw poll” on Wednesday, a mechanism in which each member gives candidates one of three assessments: “encourage”, “discourage” or “no opinion”. A diplomatic source said Grynspan retained first place after receiving 9 “encourage” votes. With this result, Grynspan has led four of the five straw polls held by the council since last July.
The result followed a slight decline in the previous round, held on 29 September, when she received 10 “encourage” votes, two “no opinion” votes and 3 “discourage” votes. Argentina’s director general of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, came second in the latest round.
Former Guyanese Foreign Minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett came third, while four women and three men continue to compete to succeed current Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Guterres’s second five-year term ends on 31 December 2026.
Conditions for deciding the secretary-general nomination
As the selection process advances, the race remains open because of the procedures within the 15-member Security Council, where any permanent member can block a potential nomination by using its veto. A candidate needs the support of 9 Security Council members while avoiding opposition from any of the five permanent members: the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France.
If a candidate clears this hurdle, the council refers the name to the 193-member General Assembly for final approval. The five permanent members have so far remained silent about their choices, despite the decisive role their positions play in determining the outcome of the race.
Diplomats, for their part, are avoiding speculation about the course of the contest amid divisions among the major powers and their failure to disclose the names of their preferred candidates. Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzia, confirmed this uncertainty in remarks to reporters last Thursday, when he hinted that new candidates could soon emerge.
Uncertainty over major powers’ positions prolongs race
This makes it harder to identify the front-runner in a race that observers expect to continue for several more months. The next leadership is being chosen at a time when the United Nations is facing one of the most difficult periods in its history, amid a decline in multilateral action, continuing divisions among Security Council members and severe financial crises hampering the organisation’s work.
Daniel Forti, head of United Nations affairs at the International Crisis Group, said the four candidates had “tried to walk a political tightrope”. He added that it remained unclear whether any candidate would be able to do enough to move ahead of their rivals or prevent potential candidates from emerging later.
Minh-Thu Pham, chief executive of the Starling Institute and a former adviser to former secretary-general Kofi Annan, said there was broad support for appointing a secretary-general prepared to take risks and able to engage more effectively in efforts to promote peace. Pham believes the United Nations is absent from dialogue on major crises because it has not shown enough courage to take risks.
This assessment reflects part of the debate over the type of leadership the organisation needs amid current international crises and divisions. Susana Malcorra, Argentina’s former foreign minister and former senior UN official, who ran for secretary-general in 2016, said the United Nations needed “more than ever” new leadership and new energy.
Malcorra leads a global rights advocacy group called Global Women’s Voices, which is running a campaign to have a woman head the international organisation next time, at a point when women account for four of the seven figures currently competing.
Members’ positions could reshuffle the race
Although Grossi is the most prominent and best-known figure among the contenders, observers do not see any candidate as having a decisive advantage so far.
The straw-poll result remains an indicator of the level of support within the council, but it does not settle the race before the positions of the permanent members become clear and new names potentially enter the contest.
