Brazil’s electoral authority announced that the presidential race would proceed to a second round between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, after neither candidate secured the 50% or more of the vote needed to settle the election in the first round.
The results, after slightly more than 97% of the votes had been counted, showed Bolsonaro with 47.45% of valid votes, ahead of Lula da Silva, who received 44.66%. The 45-year-old right-wing candidate, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, performed better than projected by most private opinion polls conducted before the vote.
The electoral court in Brasília said that the 80-year-old incumbent, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, and his rival Bolsonaro had not reached the threshold required for a first-round victory. The two leading candidates will therefore advance to the run-off scheduled for 25 October, after defeating 12 other candidates who contested the first round.
Polls get it wrong as Bolsonaro celebrates lead
Robert Muga, co-founder of the Igarapé research institute, commented on the gap between the results and the projections, saying: “Polling firms were significantly wrong.” He added that he expected run-off polls, which point to a close race, to also understate Bolsonaro’s strength.
Flávio Bolsonaro told journalists in Brasília, after almost all the results had emerged: “Brazil wants change and I am very pleased with the results,” declaring what he described as “the end of the Workers’ Party era” led by Lula. Bolsonaro had pledged, as he left a polling station in Rio, to “liberate the Brazilian people”.
The right-wing candidate added: “Brazil needs change. It can no longer endure all this suffering, these high taxes, the large number of women being killed and this level of political persecution.” During his campaign, he focused on concerns over the rising cost of living, while promising a tougher approach to tackling crime and decisive action to address the growing public debt. He also backed a close partnership with Washington.
Lula announces new campaign for run-off
By contrast, Lula told a crowd gathered at a hotel in São Paulo that he had been convinced he could win in the first round. He added: “Starting tomorrow, we begin a new campaign,” pledging to present voters with what he had achieved during his years in office in the next stage of the race.
Lula, after casting his vote in São Paulo state in the country’s south-east, stressed that Brazil’s sovereignty was at stake in the face of pressure from the US administration, which had imposed tariffs on Brazilian goods. The outgoing left-wing president said: “The people will have to choose between strengthening the democratic system and barbarism.” The election campaign focused on the rising cost of living, corruption and insecurity in Brazilians’ daily lives.
Lula sought to ban online gambling, while expanding social welfare programmes as the competition intensified and proposing new debt relief for households. The president, who returned to power in 2023, is relying on his social programmes, which helped lift millions out of poverty at the start of the millennium, as well as unemployment falling to historic levels, while voters continue to complain about the high cost of living and widespread crime.
Financial pressures and rising debt weigh on race
Brazil faces financial challenges as spending rises and public debt exceeds 82% of gross domestic product, issues the next president will have to address. The government has lowered its economic growth forecasts to 2% for the current year and 2.3% next year.
The election is taking place amid sharp polarisation over the political direction of Latin America’s largest country: whether left-wing rule will continue or Brazil will join the region’s right-wing surge, which has the support and encouragement of US President Donald Trump. Conservatives have achieved a series of victories across the region, while a shift to the right by its largest economic power would represent a significant political transformation.
Flávio’s candidacy driven by his father’s political legacy
Flávio Bolsonaro was not widely known before his father propelled him into the presidential race. His candidacy came after former President Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempting to cling to power after his defeat by Lula da Silva in the 2022 election.
Brazil’s new presidential term is scheduled to begin on 5 January 2027.
