Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are heading for a decisive run-off on 25 October after neither secured the 50% or more of the vote needed to settle the presidential election in the first round, according to the electoral court in Brasília on Monday.
Bolsonaro, who is allied with US President Donald Trump, won 47% of the vote, compared with 45% for Lula. The result was at odds with private polls conducted before the election, which had predicted that the incumbent president would lead in the first round by nearly three percentage points.
Lula and Bolsonaro seek new presidential terms
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term, while Flávio Bolsonaro is running as a representative of the conservative right, drawing on his family’s political legacy and the support base of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of plotting a coup following his defeat in the 2022 election.
His eldest son Flávio, known in political circles as “Son No. 1”, is one of the leading figures seeking to ensure the continuation of the movement known as Bolsonarismo in Brazil’s political arena. Flávio Bolsonaro is a 45-year-old lawyer and politician who was born on 10 March 1981 in the city of Resende.
He has been a member of Brazil’s Senate, representing the state of Rio de Janeiro, since 2019, after beginning his political career at an early age. His political career began when he was 21, before he retained his seat in the Rio de Janeiro state legislature for four consecutive terms.
Bolsonaro’s conservative positions and political career
He also gained experience in managing election campaigns and played a central role in coordinating the political and media campaigns of the right-wing movement associated with his father, particularly during the 2022 presidential election. Flávio takes conservative right-wing positions on social issues, upholding traditional family values and opposing abortion.
On security, he supports tough policies to combat crime, making it easier for citizens to own guns, as well as backing the security and military forces. Economically, Bolsonaro adopts a liberal approach calling for reduced state intervention in the economy, lower taxes and easier access to free investment.
He is seen as representing the interests of pro-business sectors, as well as the conservative movement, the military establishment and agricultural interests. Lula, by contrast, represents a symbol of Brazil’s left, the trade union movement and social development programmes.
A contest between Brazil’s left and conservatives
The candidates’ arrival in the run-off reflects a clash between two opposing projects on economic, political and security issues: Lula’s left-wing approach and Bolsonaro’s conservative policies in favour of reducing the role of the state. During his career, Flávio Bolsonaro faced judicial investigations that attracted widespread media attention in Brazil.
The most prominent was what became known as the “rachadinha” case, in which he was accused of embezzling public funds by imposing financial deductions from the salaries of employees in his former legislative office while he was a state lawmaker in Rio de Janeiro. The higher courts later dismissed the allegations.
Bolsonaro also faced suspicions related to money laundering, but denied the allegations, saying the investigations against him were politically motivated and aimed at targeting his family. Those cases remain part of the political dispute surrounding his career, while he presents himself as the political heir to his father’s movement. The first-round campaign focused on the cost of living, corruption and insecurity in Brazilians’ daily lives.
The election followed a series of victories by right-wing parties inclined towards Trump in several Latin American countries, adding a regional dimension to the contest in the region’s largest economy. Bolsonaro’s lead in the first round is expected to give his campaign a boost ahead of the 25 October vote.
The prospect of victory for the pro-business candidate could also support Brazil’s currency and stock market, both of which rose amid expectations of his lead, as the two sides prepare for a decisive campaign to mobilise voters who did not make up their minds in the first round.
