China’s Foreign Ministry urged Washington to handle the Taiwan issue cautiously, responding to assessments by US officials that the likelihood of China carrying out military action against the island before 2028 is increasingly declining. Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said in remarks made on 6 October 2026 that the Taiwan issue is an internal Chinese matter and that its resolution concerns the Chinese alone and, in his words, leaves no room for the intervention of any outside powers.
Guo called on the US side to implement the important understandings reached during the meeting between the presidents of China and the United States, adhere to the one-China principle and the three joint communiqués between the two countries, and handle the Taiwan issue cautiously.
US assessments on the timing of military action
Beijing’s position came after a report cited US officials as believing that the likelihood of Chinese military action against Taiwan before 2028 had become less likely, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s instructions for the military to be ready by 2027 to carry out an operation by force if a decision to do so were made.
The report cited current US officials, a former official and a person familiar with the matter as saying that the assessment was based on delays in military readiness amid the anti-corruption campaign within the Chinese Communist Party, along with Beijing’s interest in the outcome of Taiwan’s presidential election scheduled for 2028. According to the reported assessments, some Chinese officials hope the election will result in a government more willing to move closer to Beijing.
The sources also assessed that the likelihood of China resorting to force would increase after 2028 if the Democratic Progressive Party won a fourth consecutive term, particularly if Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te were re-elected.
Intelligence assessment of Beijing’s plans for Taiwan
An annual assessment issued by US intelligence agencies in March 2026 said that China’s leadership was not currently planning to carry out military action against Taiwan in 2027 and did not have a fixed timetable for achieving unification. The assessment said Beijing preferred to achieve its goal without using force if possible, while the Chinese military continued to develop its capabilities and military plans.
Separately, Guo reiterated his country’s opposition to US arms sales to Taiwan after the Taiwanese side received two F-16V fighter jets purchased from the United States, with plans to take delivery of 64 more fighters during 2026.
Taiwan has been self-governing since 1949, when Kuomintang forces led by Chiang Kai-shek moved there after being defeated by the communists in the Chinese civil war. Taipei has since retained the name and flag of the Republic of China, along with a number of its institutions, while Beijing maintains that the island is part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China and says its position is supported by most countries, including Russia.
