The Republican majority in the US Congress faces a decisive electoral test on 3 November, amid signs of declining support for President Donald Trump and growing voter dissatisfaction over living costs and the repercussions of the war on Iran. Meanwhile, billionaire Elon Musk is pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into supporting the party's candidates and trying to protect its control of the House of Representatives and Senate.
Trump steps up efforts to protect majority
Trump has become more involved in the midterm election campaign, seeking to avoid a defeat that could limit his ability to pass legislation and secure appointments during the remainder of his presidency.
His activities include taking part in election rallies, endorsing preferred candidates, and promoting investment projects and economic pledges in swing states, in an attempt to contain public anger linked to his policies.
Musk pours millions into supporting Republicans
Alongside the president's activities, Musk has poured more than 276 million dollars since last July into political committees and groups supporting Republicans, according to The New York Times, making him the biggest known donor in the current midterm election cycle. The contributions are part of a broad financial effort aimed at supporting the party's candidates in close races and mobilising conservative voters.
Musk's donations were distributed among several organisations and candidates. He gave 158 million dollars to the Senate Leadership Fund and 20 million dollars to the Congressional Leadership Fund, as well as 10 million dollars to support Ken Paxton, the Republican Party's Senate candidate for Texas.
Musk's total federal spending during the current election cycle has exceeded 366 million dollars, surpassing the roughly 290 million dollars he spent supporting Trump and Republicans in the 2024 election. He has also given more than 76 million dollars to his political action committee, which conducts field campaigns targeting conservatives who typically have lower turnout in elections.
Campaign targets mobilisation of conservative base
Musk's campaign does not prioritise persuading undecided voters. Instead, it focuses mainly on mobilising the conservative base and ensuring that its members go to the polls. As part of the plan, the campaign has deployed thousands of field workers and targeted competitive districts in seven states holding Senate contests, as well as dozens of House districts.
The campaign's messages focus on identity, immigration and socialism, according to The New York Times, while portraying Democratic candidates as part of a far-left agenda. The newspaper said some of the messages exaggerate the targeted candidates' actual positions, as part of an effort to motivate and mobilise conservative voters against Democrats.
Texas is one of the main areas targeted by this spending, with Musk's campaign allocating a large share of its expenditure to supporting Paxton in the Senate race. The backing coincided with the launch of a wide-ranging 149-million-dollar advertising campaign on his behalf, while his Democratic rival faces a less severe financial challenge than the gap confronting other candidates.
Economic pressures threaten the Republican advantage in advertising, spending and political support.
But the Republicans' financial advantage is facing growing political and economic pressures. The repercussions of the war on Iran have contributed to higher fuel prices and intensified inflationary pressures, alongside the effects of tariffs and rising borrowing costs. These burdens have begun to fuel discontent among some voters and farmers, including people who voted for Trump in the previous presidential election in states traditionally regarded as Republican strongholds.
Iowa illustrates the scale of the electoral risks facing the party. According to the Financial Times, Democratic candidate Josh Turek holds a narrow lead over his Republican rival Ashley Hinson in the Senate race, despite Trump winning the state by 13 percentage points in the 2024 election.
The close race in Iowa reflects growing concern over living costs, while Hinson is seeking to distance herself partially from some of Trump's policies, including the war and tariffs. Democrats need to gain four seats to reach a majority in the Senate, while their chances of regaining control of the House appear increasingly likely.
Musk's money and the extensive field campaign may give Republicans tools to counter their decline, but they do not guarantee a change in the public mood. Trump's success in mobilising lower-turnout voters during the 2024 election also does not necessarily mean the result will be repeated in an election in which his name does not appear on the ballot, putting the party's ability to mobilise its base to a different test.
If Republicans lose control of one or both chambers of Congress, Trump could face difficulties passing legislation and securing approval for the appointment of officials and judges. A possible Democratic majority could also open the way for congressional investigations concerning his administration and members of his family, making the election consequential for his ability to govern, not merely for the distribution of seats in Congress.
The Republicans' prospects depend on their ability to turn their financial advantage into votes and convince voters that their policies can ease economic pressures. Conversely, anger over prices and the war could limit the impact of advertising spending and Trump's activities, reshaping the balance of power in Washington after the November election.
