The Republican Party has entered the period before the congressional midterm elections under pressure from two issues that differ in nature but could together affect its chances of retaining its legislative majority. On one hand, the party is facing the consequences of a sharp rise in diesel prices and the burden it places on farmers and consumers. On the other, it is dealing with renewed attention to the files of the late billionaire Jeffrey Epstein, who was convicted of sex offences, and the accompanying political debate involving President Donald Trump.
The Trump administration is trying to contain anger over fuel costs through swift measures targeting farmers and lorry drivers, while Democrats are seeking to use economic issues and the Epstein files in their election campaigns.
The midterm elections are thus becoming a test of Republicans’ ability to defend their record in government while managing the political repercussions associated with Trump. Economic pressure is particularly concentrated in agricultural and Midwestern states, where daily activity depends on lorries, farm machinery and long-distance transport networks.
Higher diesel prices add to the burden on agricultural states
Energy prices, particularly diesel, have become one of the main issues concerning voters in those areas because of their direct impact on the costs of farming and transporting food and goods. Federal statistics showed that the average price of a gallon of diesel in the Midwest reached $6.53 in September, up $2.80 from the same period a year earlier.
In California, the price reached $8.44 a gallon, reflecting the breadth of the crisis and showing that it is not confined to the central agricultural states. The crisis is linked, according to economic analyses covered by US media, to the repercussions of the war with Iran and damage sustained by key refineries in the Middle East.
Although crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to 10.3 million barrels a day, equivalent to 76% of pre-war levels, flows of refined products such as diesel have remained low. Data from Kpler, which tracks maritime traffic and commodity trading, showed that refined products accounted for only about 11% of shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, compared with more than 20% before the war.
Refineries in several Gulf countries were also damaged as a result of the military confrontation with Iran, increasing pressure on supplies of fuel ready for consumption. The electoral repercussions of the crisis prompted Vice-President JD Vance to become personally involved in efforts to reduce fuel costs and contain the anger of farmers and voters.
Diesel prices have become a concern for Republicans in key rural states, particularly as their impact spreads from petrol stations to the prices of transport, farming, food and various goods. During a recent visit to Iowa, Vance asked the Republican candidate for governor of the state, Zach Lan, what the administration could do to help farmers.
Lan proposed allowing the use of dyed diesel, a tax-exempt fuel generally intended for agricultural and construction purposes and off-road use, along with suspending the federal tax of 24.4 cents a gallon until the end of the year. The US Department of Agriculture estimated that allowing the measure would save farmers about $640 million.
The White House also estimated that lorry drivers could save up to $129 per fill-up, in an attempt to provide direct relief from the costs borne by workers in the transport and farming sectors. The proposal did not remain confined to political debate. After Vance described the idea as “an interesting task”, he contacted his advisers and members of the government.
On 5 October, Trump signed an executive order temporarily suspending, until the end of the year, the application of federal rules preventing the use of dyed diesel on roads. Alongside these measures, Trump played down the economic pressure resulting from rising prices at his campaign rallies, describing the increase as “a small price” to preserve national security.
He also said that the economy as a whole was booming and predicted that prices would soon fall once the war with Iran ended. Analysts, however, say that tax relief does not address the underlying cause of the crisis, because the shortage is concentrated in refined products rather than crude oil alone.
In his analysis, writer Colin Eaton argued that the diesel crisis was linked to a global shortage of refined fuel, meaning that the resumption of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz would not necessarily lead to a rapid return of diesel, petrol and jet-fuel supplies. Fuel-price expert Patrick De Haan summed up the limits of tax intervention by saying: “The problem is not taxes, but supplies.”
This assessment suggests that suspending the tax or expanding the use of fuel exempt from it could temporarily ease the financial burden without addressing the bottleneck affecting refining operations and global supplies. Oil analyst Andy Lipow, for his part, said that consumers “do not buy crude oil.”
“They buy petrol, jet fuel and diesel,” he said, explaining the gap between the recovery in crude flows and the continuing shortage of finished fuel. The return of oil shipments to 76% of pre-war levels coincides with refined products accounting for only about 11% of shipments passing through the strait.
This gap gives the diesel crisis electoral weight beyond fuel prices themselves, as higher costs affect the operation of lorries and farm machinery before feeding through into food, transport and goods prices. That places the cost-of-living issue among the main challenges facing Republicans, particularly in areas that form the party’s traditional base. Alongside the economic pressure, Republicans face a Democratic political campaign focused on Jeffrey Epstein’s files.
Democratic campaign makes electoral use of Epstein files
Political correspondent Andrew Howard said that the major Democratic Senate political action committee was “flooding the airwaves with adverts attacking Republicans over Jeffrey Epstein, the late financier convicted of sex offences. It has data to support that”.
Data from the Democratic political action committee says that election adverts focused on the issue could shift the results of some races by between 3 and 6 points in favour of Democratic candidates. The party is therefore seeking to turn the issue from a controversy involving Epstein and his relationships into a direct factor in the contest for Senate seats.
The issue takes on a more direct connection to Trump in the analysis of political analyst and strategist David Rothkopf. Rothkopf said that, in his view, the president’s continued defence of people accused of sexual assault was linked to fears that allegations concerning his past and his relationships with Epstein could resurface. This is an interpretation attributed to the analyst, not an established judicial finding.
Rothkopf added that Trump was aware that female victims might testify before Congress in the future, arguing that this was prompting the president’s team to try to protect his political position at an early stage. Democratic campaigns are using this analysis to link the Epstein case to broader questions concerning transparency and political accountability.
The two issues affect voters through different mechanisms: the diesel crisis has a direct material impact visible in the cost of transport, farming and goods, while the Epstein files carry legal, ethical and political dimensions connected to the president and his party. Nevertheless, the issues converge on a single electoral question: whether Republicans can persuade voters that the party deserves to retain its majority in Congress.
Republicans and Democrats expand their electoral stakes
In response, Republicans led by Trump and Vance are trying to demonstrate a rapid response to cost-of-living pressures by suspending restrictions relating to dyed diesel and addressing farmers in the party’s strongholds.
Democrats, meanwhile, are betting on combining economic discontent with the controversy surrounding Epstein to improve their chances of gaining additional seats in the Senate and House of Representatives in the midterm elections.
