German intelligence services accused Russia on Monday of escalating what they described as a ‘shadow war’ against Germany, warning that the widening scope of operations attributed to Moscow — from espionage and sabotage to assassination attempts — is increasing the risk of the two countries being drawn into an armed conflict, as Russia strongly denies the German allegations.
Martin Jaeger, head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service, told a parliamentary intelligence committee that Germany faced the risk of being drawn into a violent conflict with Russia. He added that no other country currently posed a direct, comprehensive and tangible threat to Germany on the same scale.
Jaeger cited an attempted attack targeting a Ukrainian transport aircraft at Leipzig airport last August, which German authorities suspect was carried out by agents working for Russia. He said Germany had ‘become a major obstacle to Russia’s efforts to expand its influence and dominance in Europe’, making it ‘a target for Russian activities’.
Warning of limited military activities in the Baltic
The head of the foreign intelligence service said his agency currently saw ‘no indication’ of Russian plans to launch a major military attack on a member state of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, or NATO. But he warned of the possibility of ‘limited Russian military activities’, particularly in the Baltic states. Jaeger said intelligence services played a key role in countering the ‘shadow war’.
He stressed the importance of the sweeping reform of Germany’s intelligence services, approved earlier this year, which allows German agents to conduct more offensively oriented covert operations rather than limiting their missions to gathering information. Berlin has for some time accused Moscow of running a ‘multifaceted’ campaign involving espionage, sabotage and other activities.
Russia denies allegations as Germany strengthens support for Ukraine
Russia, for its part, rejects the allegations. Security concerns have prompted Germany, a NATO member, to allocate record sums to rebuild its armed forces in response to threats it attributes to Russia. Germany is Ukraine’s leading supporter in its war with Russia since February 2022.
The German government believes this role has made the country a major target for hostile Russian operations, which it says range from disinformation and espionage activities to assassination attempts. As part of Germany’s continued support for Kyiv, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced on Sunday that further military aid would be provided to Ukraine.
Domestic intelligence service broadens scope of threats
He pledged to continue its support during an unannounced visit to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. Meanwhile, Sinan Selen, head of Germany’s domestic intelligence service, said Russian operations went far beyond traditional espionage to include ‘sabotage and assassinations’.
He added that ‘defence industries and military infrastructure are in the line of fire’, accusing Moscow of having ‘come to accept the possibility of civilian casualties’ as part of its campaign against Germany. One of the key incidents underpinning the German warnings dates to 4 August last year, when a drone was found at Leipzig/Halle airport near a Ukrainian cargo aircraft, amid suspicions that it was carrying an explosive device.
Conflicting allegations over Leipzig aircraft incident continue
At the beginning of September, the German government formally accused Russia of responsibility for the attempted attack. Moscow completely rejected the accusation and accused Berlin of fabricating evidence. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at the time that European allegations against his country over the aircraft incident represented ‘the beginning of a real war’.
US intelligence claimed that the characteristics of the explosives-laden drone ‘matched’ methods used by Russian military intelligence. The German government later announced a package of measures against Moscow, saying the findings of the investigation into the incident pointed to its responsibility.
The measures included closing the Russian consulate general in Bonn from 18 September last year, terminating the contract linked to the ‘Russian House’ in Berlin, tightening entry requirements for Russian citizens travelling to Germany, and increasing pressure on what Berlin describes as Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’.
